First off, if you need to catch up, click here.

There are two main reasons for a candidate to resort to dirty tactics: the candidate is lagging in the polls, and/or the candidate is not able to differentiate themselves from their opponent. Why is this?

First off let us address why a candidate would go negative if and when they are lagging in the polls.

Most people self identify themselves along a poltical spectrum listed below:

The two candidates, the Democrat and Republican fall at various points listed above (please note that this is not necessarily the case in the Salt Lake Mayors race, this is simply to illustrate a point); in this instance the term “Liberal” or “Conservative” equate to economic issues. Point V4 represents a moderate voter who could go either way if the two candidates are equidistant from each other; this theoretical point is where most voters fall. A V4 voter could go either way if the candidates were V3 or V5. Those who fall on V5, however, would vote for a V6 candidate more than a V3 candidate because V6 is closer to V5. In the above figure the Democratic candidate would win because he appeals to voters V1 though V5.

It is presumed that Republican candidate wishes to win. In order to do this he must either move more towards the center and appeal to more voters or attempt to construct a message to push the Democratic further away from the center. Because a candidate can not easily be viewed as more or less Liberal or Conservative a second axis must be taken into consideration, and this is the axis where dirty politics takes place.

Let us assume that Republican candidate knows that the potential constituents are moderate when it comes to social issues. The Republican will run a campaign in an attempt to sway the voters towards him and away from the Democrat by making him appear as a far more progressive than he or she may actually be. See below as an example.

In this case voters prefer the point V0. The Republican, by going negative will move himself away from the center but, due to a successful smear campaign against the Democrat, was able to move his opponent far from center and alienate all but the most extreme of voters. In this case the Republican was successful and wins the race.

So why did the Republican go negative? Again we must assume that both candidates wish to win. The Republican, knowing he or she is going to lose under normal circumstances, has to create issues that otherwise did not exist (this is where you need to refer to my previous post about what makes a negative campaign: labeling, manipulating facts, and personal attacks).

Reason one for going negative: the candidate went negative because they had nothing to lose. An unsuccessful negative campaign simply keeps the candidate where they would have been had they not attempted the move (i.e. loosing); a successful campaign, however, can bear fruit.

Reason two for going negative: the candidate can not differentiate them self from their more popular opponent. If both candidates have similar agendas but one is (or appears to be) more moderate, the loosing candidate has to do something to try and woo voters. But how is it that two candidates can have similar agendas but be so far away from each other in the polls? Well this is where intangibles such as party affiliation, reputation, charisma, etc. kick in.

The grand point: candidates do not need to go dirty, however there are very logical reasons as to why one would.

Next in the series: When and how candidates counter a dirty campaign and a grand summary of the Salt Lake City Mayors race.