So this is the beginning of a series of posts where I alienate myself from the Democratic Party and say the things that none of us really want to admit – namely that we are not going to win every single election we take part in. Today it will be relatively warm and fuzzy, but as we move up the ticket, I know that I am going to upset a few people here and there. To my friends, please know that I want to be wrong, but I know that there are some places where we need to be realistic.

First off, I am not going to choose every single race, just the ones I have some level of interest in. I will base my guesses (and they are just guesses) on various criteria: previous election history, fundraising of each candidate, activity of the campaign, poll numbers (if applicable), and finally, my gut. I will also provide a summery of why I feel this way, my endorsement, and links to campaign web sites when available.

This is the first in a five part series: Wednesday will focus on State House of Representatives, Friday, the Utah Senate, Sunday will focus on state wide races, and next Tuesday will focus on federal campaigns.

Proposition 1 – Bond for Tracy Aviary.
Prediction – Proposition Fails: 44-56%
Endorsement – Proposition Passes

In these times of economic crisis, the citizens of Salt Lake County are going to have a hard time swallowing not one, but two bond proposals to improve various parks around the county. In my mind the bond will fail for two reasons: they have failed to gain traction on their “vote yes” campaign and, again, voters are going to have a hard time convincing voters to swallow a second bond initiative.

http://www.savetheaviary.com/

Proposition 2 – Bond for Hogle Zoo
Prediction – Proposition Passes: 53-47%
Endorsement – Proposition Passes

Although voters will look at the $33 million price tag and gulp, I feel that this proposition will pass with a fairly safe margin. The “Renew the Zoo” ad campaign appears to be quite successful, and I have seen numerous lawn signs throughout the county. Furthermore, I have seen no opposition to this bond initiative; my guess is that detractors feel that the price tag is enough to make people vote no. Finally I feel that the zoo has a greater attendance then the aviary and will benefit from more people being aware of the zoo.

https://www.hoglezoo.org/renew-the-zoo

County Mayor
Prediction – Peter Corroon 62-36-2%
Endorsement – Peter Corroon

With over half a million dollars more than Corroon’s closest rival, it almost goes without saying that the Corroon campaign has had little trouble leading up to this election; it also does not hurt that Corroon is arguably the most popular Democrat in Utah. It should also be noted that the Corroon campaign is taking nothing for granted. The campaign is constantly walking, making calls, and holding various meet and greets.

Peter Corroon (D) – http://www.votecorroon.com/
Michael Renckert (R) – (Web site unknown)
Leonard Olds (C) – (Web site unknown)

County Council at Large – “A”
Prediction – Randy Horiuchi 54-46%
Endorsement – Randy Horiuchi

It seems that Horiuchi has been involved in county government for as long as there has been a Salt Lake County, and I see no reason why he should not or could not continue to the end of time. I have not heard much from the Horiuchi campaign aside from the omnipresent “He’s Got Game” branding campaign. Horiuchi’s name recognition, combined with his fundraising skills, will equate to a safe victory.

Randy Horiuchi (D) – (Web site unknown)
Steven DeBry – (R) – (Web site unknown)

County Council – District 2

Prediciton – Too Close to Call
Endorsement – Paul Pugmire

From what I can gather, the race between Pugmire and County Councilman Michael Jensen is neck and neck. Pugmire has done a good job of getting his name out and, from what I have heard, he has been canvassing the West Side hard. Pugmire has been fighting against the “R” next to Jensen’s name by pointing out Jensen’s poor attendance at council meetings.

Paul Pugmire (D) – http://www.paulpugmire.com/
Michael Jensen (R) – http://electmichaeljensen.com/

County Council – District 4

Prediction – Jani Iwamoto 53-47%
Endorsement – Jani Iwamoto

In the race for District 4, Iwamoto has hit the ground running. Her campaign has been persistent in making sure that people know how Jani is and Salt Lake’s East Bench has, of late, become swing areas, favoring candidates who work the hardest. Her opponent, Mark Crockett does not appear to have as much on the ground traction, instead focusing on his previous work. If Iwamoto wins, part of the victory will have to be chalked up to the “Obama” factor.

Jani Iwamoto (D) – http://www.votejani.com/
Mark Crockett (R) – http://www.markcrockett.org/

County Council – District 6

Prediction – To close to call (revised since orginial posting from 52-49 in Burdick’s favor)
Endorsement – Roger Harding

(orignial post)
I have been impressed with Harding from the start, as he really seems to be in the race for all of the right reasons. The fact that I feel that this race is close at all speaks volumes to Harding’s drive and desire to serve. I hope that I am wrong in my prediction, and feel that a lot can still happen between now and Election Day. I predict that this will not be the last time we hear from Harding if he does not make it this time around. It should also be noted that this race has the most “X” factors in my mind. The Democratic Party has been spending a lot of time in this section of the valley and a strong get out the vote effort could turn this race in Harding’s favor.

Roger Harding (D) – http://www.rogerharding.com/
Max Burdick (R) – http://www.electmax.com/