This is the second in a five part series: Monday focused on Salt Lake County Elections, Friday discusses the Utah Senate, Sunday will focus on statewide races, and next Tuesday will focus on federal campaigns.
This is an incomplete list of races as I am unable to follow all 75 races around the state. That being said I will give you a few of the ones I feel will be close or are of note.
District 28
Prediction – Brian King 52-46-2%
Endorsement – Brian King
With veteran Roz McGee stepping down, this race has provided some intrigue early on with the escort service scandal surrounding heir apparent, Kelly Ann Booth. Arising from this was the relative unknown of Brian King. Taking nothing for granted King has since proven himself as a fine candidate, walking the area. I predict that King will continue to make this seat blue.
Brian King (D) – www.briansking.com
Jeff Morrow (R) – http://jeffmorrow.org
Jared Beck (C) – (unknown web site)
District 32
Prediction – Ron Bigelow – 52-48%
Endorsement – Mike Lee
This will be the second time Lee and Bigelow have gone head to head in an election. Last time Lee pulled an impressive 40% for the, then, political new comer. Lee has learned alot and it has shown in his strategy. This being said, I still do not feel that Lee has been able to change this seat. This race, I feel, will be greatly affected by the Obama “x” factor – if enough first time voters come out, my prediction may be wrong.
Mike Lee (D) – www.votemikelee.org
Ron Bigelow (R) – www.ronbigelow.net
District 36
Prediction – Phil Riesen – 55-43-1-1%
Endorsement – Phil Riesen
Last year Riesen won his election by less than 250 votes, this year he has had to endure an ethics violation scandal. That being said, Riesen has done much for the district and should not have too big of a problem winning. The campaign has been walking the area extensively and has raised a third more in funds. This, combined with the power of incumbency should be enough for victory.
Phil Riesen (D) – http://philriesen.com
Drew Quinn (R) – http://electdrewquinn.com
Shaun Kruger (L) – (unknown web site)
Nishan Beglarian (C) – (unknown web site)
District 45
Prediction – To Close to Call
Endorsement – Laura Black
This is one of the Young Democrats most important races. Black, back in 2006, lost by 18 votes and has decided to come back for more. Black’s campaign has walked her area at least twice, and plans to do more before Election Day. This one is going to be a squeaker if ever there was one, but it ought to be fun to watch. This race will act as a bellwether for ethics reform in the state, as Monson replaced Representative Mark Walker had to step down amid allegations of corruption.
Laura Black (D) – www.votelaurablack.com
Brian Monson (R) – (unknown web site)
W. David Perry (C) – www.perry08.com
District 48
Prediction – To Close to Call
Endorsement – Trisha Beck
This race features two campaigning veterans, each with scars from battles past. On the one side we have Trisha Beck who, during the last cycle, got hammered by negative campaigns a few weeks before the election. On the other side we have the fastidious LaVar Christensen, who suffered a truly humiliating two to one loss against Jim Matheson after giving up his seat in the legislature to run. This race is in another swing district, and both candidates have come out swinging.
Trisha Beck (D) – www.trishabeck.org
LaVar Christensen (R) – (unknown web site)
District 49
Prediction – Jay Seegmiller – 50-48-1-1%
Endorsement – Jay Seegmiller
In another hotly contested race, Jay Seegmiller goes up against Speaker of the House Greg Curtis for a thrid time. During the past two elections Seegmiller has closed the gap to just 20 votes in 2006. This year no candidate has an inherent advantage in regards to name recognition, so everything hinges on policy and likeability. I predict that Seegmiller has the resources necessary to win (despite Curtis’ quarter of a million in the bank).
Jay Seegmiller (D) – www.jayseegmiller.com
Greg Curtis (R) – (unknown web site)
Wayne Crawford (C) – (unknown web site)
Charles Bonsall (L) – (unknown web site)
District 51
Prediction – To Close to Call
Endorsement – Lisa Johnson
This is Johnson’s second attempt at the seat and, although Johnson ran a great race in 2006, she was unable to break 40% of the vote. What makes this election so different? Two words: ethics probe. Johnson’s opponent, Greg Hughes, has been in the news a lot lately, and it has not been very good. Accusations of bribery and political favors have opened this race wide up. I hope the voters in this district will see Hughes’ name and immediately vote for Johnson.
Lisa Johnson (D) – www.electlisa.org
Greg Hughes (R) – www.greghughes.org
What happened with Walker, and I didn’t know LavAAAAr was back. Man I hate that guy.
Ron Bigelow is one of the best Rep’s on the hill. People would be nuts to not vote for him, if they are in his district.
His website is
http://www.ronbigelow.net/
Arc,
I beg to differ (probably no surprise there), but thanks for providing his website!