This is the last in a five part series: Monday focused on Salt Lake County Elections, Wednesday concerned itself with the Utah State House of Representatives while Friday was the Utah Senate. Finally, last Sunday focused on statewide races.
Remember everyone, the election is in a week. If you don’t know where to vote, click here. Polls will be open from 7 AM to 8 PM on November 4th.
House District 1
Prediction – Rob Bishop – 66-30-2-1%
Endorsement – Morgen Bowen
As a citizen of the First Congressional District, I have been all too familiar with Rob Bishop and his proposals; having done many things that I fundamentally disagree with, I will not be casting my support for him in a week. The problem is that, though I do not agree with his politics, I see that he is a very smart guy. He has not been a blubbering fool while on Capitol Hill, just a conservative supporter of whatever way the wind blows for Republicans. Bishop will win, hands down, for two reasons: 1 – He has an “R” next to his name and this plays well with his constitutes and, two, Bowen has had a hard time campaigning. This second fact is why I give Bishop a 2-1 advantage. As a Democrat in the district, I don’t think I have received one piece of information from their campaign. With resources spread thin, I commend Bowen for putting up a fight.
Morgen Bowen(D) – http://www.bowenforcongress.com/
Rob Bishop (R) – http://www.votebishop.com/
Joseph Buchman (L) – http://www.buchmanforcongress.com/
Kirk Pearson (C) – (unknown web site)
House District 2
Prediction – Jim Matheson 61-37-1-1
Endorsement – Jim Matheson
Matheson has barely had to campaign in his district, and for good reason. Bill Dew offers no real challenge and has made little noise this election cycle. The fact of the matter is Matheson has done better and better every year he has gone up for reelection, and there is no reason to think that this year will be any different. No the real election story will be in 2012 when Matheson’s district is sliced and diced due to redistricting. Republicans will have to create one strong Democratic district in Utah, and Matheson will be in it. No doubt he will face and inner-party challenger and be in the race of his political life. By socking away money now, Matheson is looking four years ahead, trying to avoid becoming the Democratic Chris Cannon.
Jim Matheson (D) – http://mathesonforcongress.com/
Bill Dew (R) – http://www.billdew.com/
Mathew Arndt (L) – (unknown web site)
Dennis Emery (C) – (unknown web site)
House District 3
Prediction – Jason Chaffetz – 69-28-3%
Endorsement – Bennion Spencer
Speaking of Chris Cannon…This race certainly has been one of the more interesting ones to watch, if only because both candidates have made some interesting statements. On the one hand Jason Chaffetz said he would put illegal immigrants in tent cities wrapped with barbwire fences, on the other Bennion Spencer, in a very poorly worded statement, said that Jesus would vote for him. Spencer has the unenviable task of running as a Democrat in what is arguably the most conservative congressional district in the nation and I predict that, despite having a moderate message, the voters will elect Chaffetz in a landslide. Looks like we should reactivate the Topaz internment camp.
Bennion Spencer (D) – http://www.bennionspencerforcongress.com/
Jason Chaffetz (R) – http://www.jasonforcongress.com/
Jim Noorlander (C) – http://www.jimnoorlanderforcongress.com/
California Proposition 8
Prediction – To Close to Call
Endorsement – No
In what has become one of the most watched elections in the nation, Californians will be deciding the fate of gay marriage in their state. Polls, as of late, have stated that the proposition will pass by a margin of around 53-47, however, what the majority of these polls also point out is that young voters are severely under-represented in polls, and have margins of error well above 4 percent; hence the “to close to call.” The simple fact of the matter is, it is not unreasonable to say that at least three percent of young voters could turn this into a failing proposition and another one to two could be floating around.
Against Proposition 8 – http://www.noonprop8.com/
For Proposition 8 – http://www.protectmarriage.com/
Now what am I forgetting? I swear there is some other election that is going on, but I just can’t put my finger on it…Ooooooooh that’s right!
President – Utah Turnout
Prediction – John McCain/Sarah Palin –57-41-2%
Endorsement – Barak Obama/ Joe Biden
Anyone who thinks that Obama is going to win Utah is just fooling themselves, however the fact that I predict that he will break 40 percent speaks volumes. The Democratic National Committee’s fifty state strategy was designed to excited people in even the reddest of the red states, and this, combined with a fantastic candidate, will make a lot people vote for the first time for a Democrat (either because they have never voted before or because they have always considered themselves Republican).
President – National Turnout
Prediction – Obama/Biden 360 Electorial Votes
Lets face it, this election has been going on for far too long and both candidates would make a good president. Yes I know, I know, McCain is the Devil (or vice versa), but lets face it, either is a marked improvement over Bush. Obama, however, has taken his campaign to a whole new level. His message of change and hope are needed in a time where the politics of old are failing. We must reunite as a nation and work towards the common goods of liberty, education, economic growth, and liberty, and I feel that Barak Obama and Joe Biden with are the ones who will take us to that better future.
Barak Obama/ Joe Bide (D) – http://www.barakobama.com/
John McCain/ Sarah Palin (R) – http://www.johnmccain.com/
And, just for fun, here is my prediction for the electoral map!


Your prediction on Obama’s performance in Utah is very interesting – I’ve been wondering if anyone had any polling information because I remember that ‘within 20 points’ was being bandied about at the YDU/Obama BBQ in June, and that seemed pretty amazing by itself. You really think he’ll break 40%?
Curtis, I was disappointed to see that you endorsed Matheson over Justin Daniels. It was really too bad…. But other than that, I enjoyed reading your predictions. I hope a lot of them are wrong, but they seem to be pretty good.
Kat,
I feel that the polls are underestimating the youth turn out (after all pollsters can’t use cell phones to contact people).
As it stands right now fivethrityeight.com is predicting that Obama is down by about 23 points – I feel there are enough youth voters this year to push that down to 19-20.
Those that are blasting Jason Chaffetz, should not be, as he is a voice of reason and is not promoting the ideas he is accused of.
There are supporters of both sides that are much more restrictive than Jason Chaffetz is.
Jason is more a voice of reason compared to:
There are people that want to round up all 12 million illegals, and are mad that Jason DOESN’T want to do that. Jason only wanted facilities where the government wouldn’t have to catch and release felons. There are 600,000 they have let go. We wouldn’t have to build facilities for that many, as we just need a temporary facility for convicted criminals, to be held prior to deportation.
There are people that don’t want anyone new moving in, where Jason wants to fix LEGAL immigration so it doesn’t take so long to legally come here.
There are people that think providing any temporary worker visa is wrong, where Jason agrees it is a great way to bring people out of the shadows, get rid of the fake IDs, but this in NO WAY provides a pathway to citizenship in front of those wanting to immigrate who have followed the rules.