The news that is rippling through the Utah political scene today is the announcement by President Obama that he has tapped Governor Huntsman to be the U.S.’s ambassador to China. The ramifications of this still remain to be seen but, needless to say, they are many – both nationally and state-wide.

Let us begin with the national perspective. One of the most prevalent rumors surrounding the outgoing Governor was that he intended to run for president in 2012; all the while thinking that he did not have a shot in hell at actually getting the position.  I suspect that President Obama has heard these same rumors but feels that Huntsman is a greater threat.  What better way to block a challenge than to send your potential adversary to the other side of the world?

Now, please don’t get me wrong, I feel that Huntsman is a fantastic choice for ambassador.  His experience serving a mission in Taiwan makes him intimately aware of the tensions involved between those to nations.  Furthermore, I feel that if you come across as diplomatic in the eyes of Democrats and Republicans in Utah, you have to have some skills at keeping the peace. Furthermore, as ambassador to Singapore under Bush Sr. he knows what it takes to get the job done.

But, on that note, lets focus on Utah.

First off, I know that the next election for Governor will be the newly created special election in 2010, however I doubt that a reasonable campaign will be put together by a challenger to unseat Herbert, either from a Republican or Democratic candidate.

Lets focus on the most obvious jumping off point: what happens once Herbert takes office. Governor Herbert’s first official act will be to appoint a new Lieutenant Governor.  Herbert, being far more right that Huntsman and knowing that he can get more done if he tows the party line, will most likely pick another far right conservative.  Now, hailing from American Fork, Herbert can either choose a candidate also from Utah County and risk upsetting Salt Lake and Weber Republicans, or he can choose a candidate from Salt Lake  in an attempt to tow the party line and attempt to make the county Red again and secure a power base for at least the next five years. Obviously I feel that the latter is the route he will go.

Now who is out of work, is far right, has aspirations for higher office, and comes from Salt Lake County? Now I fully admit that I hope I am wrong on this one, but the three names I come up with are former Speaker of the House Greg Curtis, former state Representative and federal office seeker LaVar Christensen, and former Salt Lake County Mayor Nancy Workman.

We now have our Herbert/(insert name here) ticket for 2012; depending on the job he does, Herbert may be challenged internally.  As it stands right now, Huntsman was a formidable opponent, pulling 80 percent of the vote in the 08′ election – I doubt that Herbert could pull those same numbers, and this weakness opens him up to a challenge.  Watch and see if Attorney General Mark Shurtleff accidentally tweets his intention to stop running for U.S. Senate and picks up the gauntlet for Governor.

On the other side, who are the Democrats going to run? The person needs to be a moderate, have statewide name recognition, be plausible, and either is out of work or would be by 2012.  The one name that I keep turning to is Representitive Jim Matheson.  Matheson has, time and time again, proven to be a moderate Democrat on many issues (sometimes upsetting his liberal base), furthermore Jim is well-known across the state for both the work he and his father, former Governor Scott Matheson, have done for the state.  Being a Federal Representative, Matheson as Governor is not a hard sell to make and would be considered a political “step up.”  Now on to my final point, they must be out of work or would be by 2012.

The census is coming up in 2010 with the 2012 election to be the first affected by the inevitable boundary changes taking place.  It is also no secrete that Utah will get a fourth congressional seat. No matter how you cut it, Utah will have one Democratic seat at a minimum (most likely consisting of parts of Salt Lake and Summit County), and this seat will be very liberal. Matheson will, most likely, be cut out of his district and his tactic of being a moderate Democrat will come back to haunt him.  He will be too conservative for the new fourth seat and too liberal for the rest of the state. Result: Matheson probably can’t win in 2012.

What better way to avoid the embarrassment of loosing a seat that you have held for 12 years than to run for Governor? His moderate voice would be a good contrast to Herbert’s probable far-right rhetoric and fill the moderate “hole” that Huntsman creates when he leaves office. To win over more voters, Matheson would need to pick a Democrat that is also well known.  I predict that this means either Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corron, former federal Senate candidate Pete Ashdown, or Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker are put on a short list.

In short, I am saying it now, we will have a Herbert/(insert name here) Matheson/(insert name here) ticket. in 2012.

Next post – how Utah will change with Herbert as Governor.