It is that time again, where I look into my extremely cloudy crystal ball and make some predictions about the upcoming primary election taking place next week. If you are able, please be sure to vote; turnout is expected to be abysmally small, so your voice really can make a difference. I have provided links to a map of the various districts so you can check and see if you reside within them.
Utah Federal Senate – Republican Primary:
First off, I must admit that I defer much of my knowledge to MRF on this one as I am certainly not the target demographic these two races are after. That being said, MRF and I both agree that Lee’s campaign seems to have the wheels coming off of it. Many far right conservatives are learning about Lee’s lobbying past and are being turned off by it. Bridgewater, on the other hand, seems to be surging right when he needs to – with endorsements from many notable lawmakers, including current Senator Bob Bennett.
Lee will perform well in rural Utah but may not have what it takes to win in more metropolitan areas where more moderate Republicans reside. Bridgewater, I predict, will win by six points.
Utah Federal House District 2 – Democratic Primary
If you have read my blog at all, you know where I stand on this issue. That being said, I must admit that Wright has done a very good job at gaining grassroots support. There are two main “X” factors come election day 1) Wright supporters are vocal, but are there enough to carry her over the top 2) Matheson supporters are more numerous, but not necessarily as motivated to vote in a primary.
In the end, and with my bias in mind, I still think Matheson has what it takes to gain victory. The battle ground is in southern and eastern Utah where Democratic voters may be hesitant to take a bet on a new Democrat on the ticket that has not proven that she can win. I feel that the Wasatch front may go to Wright, but it is difficult to call.
Salt Lake County Council 1 - Democratic Primary:
Next to the Wright/Matheson race, this race has been one of the most contentious race amongst Democrats. Bradshaw has the support of every Democratic County Council member, along with with County Mayor Corroon and the Young Democrats of Utah, just to name a few. On the flip side, Noyce has the endorsement of Corroon as well, along with many labor organizations and the Stonewall Democrats – a possible factor in this race as both candidates are openly gay and, as Senator Hatch put so well, they vote. I will admit that I support Bradshaw and have worked with (and against) him in the past – I really do feel that he is a smart and talented individual who can get the job done.
The biggest factor in this race will be turnout, specifically between the east and west side of Salt Lake. When you couple this with the fact that the east side will come out more anyway due to State House race 25 and Congressional District 2, it is easy to see that the east side will come out strong. Bradshaw, as an east-side resident, has the clear advantage, and has been working hard in these areas to make sure it materializes. Noyce seems to have become somewhat reactionary, not a good sign for victory. I predict Bradshaw wins by 10 points.
Utah House District 25: Democratic Primary
This race has been one of the most entertaining to watch as there are two strong candidates, each of which would do a great job on the hill. Kaye is much more aggressive and in your face – not surprising for a New York native and could easily be the attack dog for the Dems. On the flip side, Briscoe is the proven administrator, knowing how to work the system to get things done.
I hate to say it, but this one is too close to call. We are just going to have to wait and see.