It is that time again, where less than half the population chooses who will lead everyone for the next two, four, and six years (depending on the election). Here are my predictions based on gut feeling, recent polls, and just a touch of hopeless optimism that people like liberals as much as I do.

Nationally

Demo’s in the Doghouse

It should come as no surprise that Democrats are going to take a thumping this year…though I suspect it is not going to be as bad as everyone is making it out to be. The simple fact of the matter is that people are upset that the economy has not turned around and have failed to see the legitimate accomplishments of the Obama administration. But, not having a job (or being underemployed) is a major stress on people and it is easy to see why they want a solution and they want it fast.

Democrats will loose the House but maintain a majority in the Senate.  In the House, my guess is 204 to 230 – for the Senate 52 t0 48.

The question, of course, is how Obama will have to adapt to the new situation. Odds are we will see something similar to the Clinton years where compromise was key on legislation. Outwardly, things will be much more contentious, however good laws will probably come out of the debate.

Senate

National Budget will be instantly slashed by 40%

Despite a strong showing by Granato, Mike Lee will be the junior senator from Utah. Granato’s problems were twofold: 1) he is running as a Democrat in Utah, 2) he was planning on running against Bob Bennett. Lee’s style was and furor amongst supporters made victory a near impossibility whereas Bennett was predictable and measured – Granato never seemed to be able to adapt to the game-changer despite great attempts to do so. Lee wins 59-35 with the remaining 6 percent going to third party candidates.

House

More of the same:

Bishop is back

In CD 1 Rob Bishop will soundly beat Morgan Bowen, his rival in 2008, and he will do it with a wider margin. Bowen’s fire at the Democratic convention fizzled and Bishop hopped on the Tea Party bus to take advantage of the movement and the extra votes that come with it. Bishop wins 70-25 with the remaining 5 percent going to third party candidates.

Philpot = looser

CD 2 has been one of the more contentious races, but Jim Matheson will hold off Morgan Philpot. Republicans smelled blood in the water early and jumped on the chance to boot the five term Democrat, but Matheson, primed from an inner party challenge, was is campaign mode early on and knew how to get votes. Philpot, on the other hand, never seemed to come out with a coherent message other than “hey, I am a Republican, you should vote for me, look how scary Nancy Pelosi is even though you don’t know what she does.” Matheson wins 54-46 with the remaining 8 percent going to third party candidates.

Chaffetz keeps his cot

CD 3 was an interesting race from a philosophical standpoint: would people in Utah County even listen to a Democrat despite the fact that they were a conservative Democrat who once listed themselves as a Republican? Well, it turns out the answer is no. Karen Hyer might be able to beat Jason Chaffetz in a leg wrestling match, but not much else. A shame, really, as Hyer was a strong candidate with fire in her belly. Chaffetz wins 70-24 with the remaining 6 percent going to third party candidates.

Governor

Two more years of poor leadership

I had said early on that Peter Corroon was the Democrats best chance to take the governors seat away from the Republicans as Herbert was weak and inexperienced.  Sadly, this does not mean that Corroon will be our next governor. Corroon did everything right – choosing a Republican as his running mate, raising funds, campaigning strong, and asking tough questions, but it is simply not enough to put him over the top. I hope Corroon comes back in 2012 with even more fight in him, as his campaign put all Republicans on edge, and made Democrats proud locally. Herbert wins 62-34 with the remaining 4 percent going to thrid party candidates.

Utah State Senate

More of the same

Don’t expect much to happen in the Utah State Senate.  Though some races are tighter than others (Gene Davis vs. Lee Brinton and Wayne Niederhauser vs. Tyler Ayers) I don’t suspect that any incumbents will be booted this year. The real question will be how districts are redrawn during the legislative session and what the 2012 election will look like.

Utah State House

Gerrymandered districts and Dems on Defense

It should come as no surprise that, in Utah’s severely gerrymandered districts, that few faces will change on Capitol Hill. Indeed, the only real change will be the people filling the seats of their fellow party members who either have chosen to step down or were booted at convention. A few races should be interesting, however: Patrice Arent vs. Jason Epps in District 36 features a former lawmaker (Arent) attempting to hold a seat recently won by the Democrats in 2006; District 44 features the very popular Tim Cosgrove against former basketball player Shawn Bradley (who’s only policy position seems to be, in fact, that he is quite tall), will voters on the west side vote for star power alone? Finally House District 48 features a rematch between incumbent Trish Beck and former representative from the district, LaVar Christensen – in the last bout, Beck was victorious by less than 230 votes.

Salt Lake County

The more things change…

The Salt Lake County Council will have some fresh faces on its nine member panel. Republicans are eager to point out that Richard Snelgrove will beat Holly Mullen to win control of the at large seat.  Indeed, I suspect that Mullen peaked too early and could not construct a proper campaign to last her into November; Snelgrove will win 56-42. In County Council District 1, Arlyn Bradshaw will coast past competitor Steve Harmsen in the extremely liberal district 72-28. In County Council District 5, Tyler Andrus, the Democrat, has put up a good fight, but the conservative district will likely not sway and, instead, vote back into office Steve DeBry by a margin of 55-45.

This would split the council 4-4. We now turn our head towards County Council District 3 – a repeat of 2006 where the victor was chosen by just over 900 votes. In the match between the Democrat, Diane Turner, and the Republican David Wilde, the contest would not be more heated.  Turner is out for victory and has worked hard to ensure that she will see victory. I feel that the efforts by Turner and her campaign staff have been nothing less than astonishing, and I feel that it will pay off. Turner will beat Wilde 54-47 and a Democratic majority will remain in the County Council.

On the executive side, Jim Winder and Sherry Swensen will coast to victory. Swensen will have the widest margin of victory due in part to her overall popularity and the childish campaign her opponent has run; Swensen wins 65-35. Winder will also soundly trounce his opponent 62-38.

The one big shake up will be in the District Attorney’s office. Lohra Miller has mismanaged the office and the voters have noticed – at the time of her election it was clear that she was inexperienced, and Sim Gill has used this as his rallying cry in another repeat campaign between the two.  Gill’s message has been clear and they have campaigned effectively. Gill beats Miller 53-47.

Herbert’s Crony Contracts scandal is about to break…

It was revealed today that Utah Department of Transportation changed the rules to conveniently allow the firm which contributed the most to Governor Herbert’s election campaign to win the lucrative $1.1 billion I-15 Core project in Utah County. To quote the Tribune: ”(T)he Selection Recommendation Committee, made up of UDOT managers and budget officials, found enough variances to ultimately swing the contract against Flatiron/Skanska/Zachry (FSZ) and in favor of Provo River Constructors by a single point. In each case, the several variances the selection committee identified broke in favor of Provo River Constructors…”

Funny how Wadsworth wins only after campaign contributions come in, and only by a single point. Also interesting how they donate to Herbert’s campaign after being awarded a contract in this way…

*crack*

Lets not forget about how upset Fred Lampropoulos, CEO of Merit Medical, was when questioned about the $4.36 million tax credit tax break is company received after contributing $25,000 and an endorsement to Herbert. Is he upset because he feels hounded, or because he knows the hammer is coming down?

*crack*

And I suspect, as you read this, reporters are looking into the $10,000 contribution from Alton Coal Development on the same day Alton was awarded a first-in-the-state permit to strip mine.

*crack*

Only one thing remains between pinning Governor Herbert to cronyism, just one little thing: An email, a note, a wistlie blower, something Herbert or his staff never thought anyone would see, some half thought note absentmindedly written down and placed into the archives will cause everything to tumble down.

After three “coincidences” it is hard to believe that each of these incidents happened in a vacuum. A pattern is forming, and Herbert’s eagerness to deflect this towards others in his administration shows a lack of accountability and leadership.

I am of the opinion that Herbert has grown complacent, confused, and corrupt, and it is time that he stop squandering our tax dollars so that his buddies get further ahead.

Just remember, it only takes one little thing…

As the campaign contribution controversy for Governor Herbert continues into its third day, more and more interesting contradictions seem to be popping up.

Mark Twain said it best: “If you tell the truth you don’t have to remember anything.” Well, it seems the Herbert administration and campaign staff are having a bit of a lapse in memory.

Take, for example, UDOT Director John Njord’s statement regarding the $13 million payout to unsuccessful bidders on the I-15 Core project team Flatiron/Skanska/Zachry. As the Salt Lake Tribune reported Njord said protests on contract bids are not unusual, but the state paid the $13 million to reimburse Flatiron for the time and expense of submitting a bid. He likened it to a football game, where there is a winner and a loser. “One of those teams was very close and thought they should have got the bid,” he said. “We kind of predict that this might occur.” Fair enough, but why would Njord authorise the payout to occur if, as the Deseret News reported it was a clean process and that it is “rare that we have to pay out” on any contract?

What made this process different? Was it because of the donations to the Governor? If the bid legitimately failed, there should be no reason to try to cover up a complaint with tax payer dollars. Even if a case were taken to court, it should be easy to prove why Flatiron/Skanska/Zachry did not get the bid – after all, if there is one thing I know from being the son of an engineer, it is that they measure and analyse everything before making a decision and make very logical (some would say Vulcan-like) decisions based on such information. 

Also, Angie Welling, the governor’s spokeswoman, stated that  it is not uncommon for those companies such as Merrit Medical to seek incentives from Governor’s Office of Economic Development (GOED) and to want to meet with the governor, even though  the decision to award the incentives are made by the GOED board without input from the governor. Again, fair enough, but why would business leaders seek out the ear of the governor regarding GOED if the governor has no say?

Merrit, as you may recall, received a $4.36 million tax credit to expand in Utah from the GOED after Fred Lampropoulos, CEO of Merit Medical, endorsed Herbert and donated $25,000 to his campaign. I understand that the governor meets with many leaders about the business community, but it is interesting to see that such a large tax credit go to one company after a sizable donation such as this.

So who will take the blame? Well, sadly, I don’t think Herbert will fess up to either being fast and loose with tax dollars or being a buffoon whose right hand does not know what his left hand is doing. I suspect that Njord will take the brunt of the scandal and become the scapegoat for the Core scandal and a low level administrator for GOED – all in an attempt to diffuse attention.

I hope the media keeps the pressure on and demand answers from Herbert. After all, if it smells funny, it probably is.

*Post publication update…It begins!

Governor Herbert, in an attempt to blast Peter Corroon about slinging mud in the campaign, held a press conference yesterday to discuss the allegations that campaign contributions led to favorable business deals for various companies around the state.

The press confrence…did not go well.

You see, it was revealed that the state paid $13 million to Flatiron/Skanska/Zachry in an attempt to settle a complaint by the company that the selection process for the $1.1 billion was unfair. To put that into perspective, the states budget deficit currently stands at $28 million – this settlement accounts for 46 percent of our current fiscal problems.

Herbert claims to have no knowledge about any of this, of course, or of the other allegations of wrongdoing regarding Merrit Medical or Alton Coal Development and the possible advantages they received after contributing to Herbert’s election campaign.

But this begs an intersting question – Is Governor Herbert inept or corrupt?

By being utterly unaware of how his state is handling the largest public works project in history, it shows that Herbert is asleep at the wheel, with no concept of how important the project is to the people of the state of Utah.

Furthermore, if he can’t see how such large donations might look bad around election time, he is showing an astounding amount of stupidity. Finally, if he can’t communicate these facts to his own campaign staff of perhaps 30 or 40, why would we want him running our state?

Finally, from a political standpoint, I find it interesting that he chose to hold a press conference with such a complaint floating overhead. Did he not know or not care about this coming out? Did his campaign staff not bother to look into the issue – effectively making their candidate walk into a firestorm unprepared.

There is the other option, of course, that Governor Herbert is corrupt, giving large contracts to those who contribute to his campaign.  Herbert may have grown too confortable in the position he was appointed to and did felt that his his job is working for the political cronies that got him on the ticket with Huntsman back in 2004 rather than to the people of Utah.

In either case, I don’t think I want him running our state.

If there is one thing people consistently hate about politics and elections, it is the amount of money that goes into them and the power associated with large campaign contributions. Most people, however, commit a logical fallacy when they state that money automatically equals political favors. They forget that those running for office are generally prodded by some group to do so – be it labor unions, local leaders, or business organizations. It is only natural that these groups would already be inclined to donate to a particular candidate.

This, however, does not mean that all donations are innocent in nature. Although it is difficult to prove that a particular donation or set of donations have resulted in a political favor, a good rule of thumb is that if it smells bad, it probably is.

Take, for example, the recent allegations facing Governor Herbert. On three separate occasions, Governor Herbert received contributions from three separate organizations that have raised some eyebrows.

It started in February when Herbert met with Alton Coal Development regarding a first of its kind strip mine in the state. On the same day, Herbert’s campaign accepted a campaign contribution from Alton to the tune of $10,000; soon after Alton’s bid for the strip mine appeared to have been hurried through the approval process soon after. Now, this could have been an isolated incident that happened to have poor timing.

But two other cases have popped up, one where the Herbert administration awarded the I-15 Core construction contract to Wadsworth Brothers Construction after Wadsworth contributed $50,000 to Herbert’s campaign – to add to the suspicion, Ralph Wadsworth and Ames Construction contributed $10,000 and $5,000 respectively to Herbert’s election bid. Less than two months later Ames Construction and Wadsworth received the contract for the Core project. As recently as June, Herbert’s campaign received an additional $17,500 between Ames and a third company, Fluor Corporation, who was also awarded a Core contract.

During this same time, Herbert met with Fred Lampropoulos, CEO of Merit Medical, and received both an endorsement from Lampropoulos and $25,000 campaign contribution. Less than two months later, in December, the Governors Economic Development Board awarded Merit Medical a $4.36 million tax credit to expand in Utah.

Now each of these events, if taken individually, may raise a few eyebrows, but when taken together equal something worth discussing. 

I feel that, after three separate incidents such as these, things stop being coincidences and start to show a pattern.

But is it quid pro quo? Well, the short answer is no, but the long answer is that there is a definite pattern that suggests that donations equate to favorable outcomes for donors. I suspect that if the media were to dive deeper after the next reporting period, they will find more “interesting” correlations.

What makes correlations like this so interesting is that they are sneaky. It may be true that no relationship exists, but Herbert has to know how this looks and, furthermore, that the buck stops with him when it comes to government contracts. The lack of evidence does not mean that there wasn’t wrongdoing, simply that no one has slipped up yet.

The real question is (and the one we never know) is if these donors expected anything in return aside from a thank you note and some recognition at a dinner. My suspicion is that, even for a large company such as Wadsworth or Merit, these are still numbers that can add up to the bottom line, and that such donations were a relatively safe (and small) risk to take to secure future business, either directly, or by increasing goodwill with the head of every government agency in Utah. If this is the case, that the actions of both the companies and Governor Herbert are quite corrupt. Think about it, if you had to pay $50  for a real shot at $1.7 Million or even $25 for a good chance at $4,360, you would probably pony up quick too.

The solution, of course, is to put campaign finance rules into place.  Donations of $10,000, $25,000, and $50,000 are bound to make people ask questions.  A cap of even $5,000 would be far more reasonable and less likely to arouse suspicions.

P.S. It is rare that I give kudos to the media, but KSL did its job as the “fourth branch” of government. Good work!

Farley Anderson is running as the Unaffiliated candidate for Governor. His opponents are Peter Corroon (D), Gary Herbert (R)(incumbent), and W. Andrew McCullough (L).

His website is www.independencemovement.org, at the time of publication, no Facebook or Twitter account were provided. He can be reached via email at andersontribe10@yahoo.com.

Here are Farley’s answers to my absurd questions:

1)      How long have you lived in Utah and what made you move here in the first place? I am a life-long Utah native and I choose this state because having traveled extensively the U.S. this is the greatest State in the Union. People really care here and terrain is unsurpassed.

2)      What does your family look like (married; kids; pets)? My family looks like a party, (not that kind of party). With ten children and my third grandchild on the way, there never is a dull moment and always something happening.

3)  What do you drive? What is your dream vehicle? I drive an old pickup truck or and old ford escort depending on needs. To me a car is a tool to get from one place to another and to haul people and stuff. At least, that is what I tell myself as long as I have other priorities. My dream car is a newer pickup or a newer economy car.

4)      What was the last book you finished? My last book I read from cover to cover was a biography of James Madison.

5)      What is your favorite store and/or restaurant in your district? My favorite store is Smith and Edwards’s Surplus and Sporting Goods store. I really like to find a new use for something discarded or make something out of something else.

6)      Turn your head to the right, what do you see? To the left my wife is sleeping on the couch waiting for me to finish. She just read to the little ones. To my right the door to our bedroom is open and it is inviting me to call it a night.

7)      In 25 words or less, explain why you are running as Unaffiliated. The E-signatures battle we won opens the political process and can give the referendum and initiative process back to the people of our state.

8)      Who would win if a bear and a shark fought each other (feel free to explain)? If a bear and a shark were fighting the winner would be the event promoter as this would not be a natural spectacle.

9)      In 50 words or less, explain why you want to be a public servant. “One of us” has to do this or we will continue to have government run by “them”. My Father ran against Bob Benet and I saw ugliness in old boy establishment that is not furthering the interests of the people of our state. Time for a change.

10)  What was the last cultural event you went to? The last cultural event I attended was a concert put on by a university group my son was in.

11)  What are the three things you plan to fight for when elected? The three things that I plan to fight for if elected are; individual and state sovereignty and reducing the size and cost of government.

12)  Do you know what OMGWTFBBQ stands for? No

13)  What is the most important amendment in the Bill of Rights? I think the 9th amendment may be the key most needed at this time so that the government won’t disparage.

14)  What is your favorite band? The Band-Aid, as it fixes owies.

15)  If you could change one thing about your district, what would it be? Since this is a statewide race what I would change about the state would be a political process that is more open, participatory, and more about issues and protecting the rights of citizens than who wants the job and who can sell off enough influence to buy an election.

***

To see other responses in the Meet the Candidates series, click here.

*Disclaimer – The opinions expressed in candidate responses are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Blue in Red Zion or its author. Every candidate with a working email address has received these same questions and are welcome to respond. If you are a candidate and did not receive these questions, please email curtis.haring@gmail.com in order to provide your own answers. The publication of a candidate’s questions should in no way be interpreted as an endorsement of said candidate.

Please note that readers are welcome to use the comment section to express their own opinion. As per the disclaimer on the right, comments will only be deleted if they can be widely viewed as offensive or not germane – though the final decision will be made by the administrator.

Andrew McCollough is the Libertarian candidate for Governor. His opponents are Farley Anderson (U), Peter Corroon (D), Gary Herbert (R)(incumbent).

Andrew’s website is www.andy4gov.org, his Facebook page can be found by clicking here, and no Twitter account was provided at the time of publication. He can be reached via email at wandrew@prodigy.net.

Here are Andrew’s answers to my absurd questions:

1)      How long have you lived in your district and what made you move there in the first place? Lived in Utah since 1966 when I moved here to go to BYU.

2)      What does your family look like (married; kids; pets)? I’m single.  I have an electric cat which purrs but does not eat.

3)      What do you drive? What is your dream vehicle? I drive a 2002 Ford Mustang.  I’m a Ford stockholder, and was sad when the company sold Jaguar, which was my dream vehicle.

4)      What was the last book you finished? “Three Cups of Tea” by Greg Mortensen, about building schools in Pakistan.  I’m reading a couple of light novels now.

5)      What is your favorite store and/or restaurant in your district?Store –  Probably the grocery store in Lehi which makes sure I eat.  Restaurant — Not sure, but maybe Olive Garden or Macaroni Grill — I like Italian.

6)      Turn your head to the right, what do you see? Big window, and outside trees and mountains; it is a beautiful day.

7)      In 25 words or less, explain why you are a Libertarian.  I don’t believe the government has the right to run our personal lives; and I do not support a government that regulates lifestyle choices.

8)      Who would win if a bear and a shark fought each other (feel free to explain)? Not enough information.  How deep is the water?  What kind of bear or shark?

9)      In 50 words or less, explain why you want to be a public servant. My law practice is built on working for social change — to allow people more freedom to live as they please.  I want to work for a small, more benign, government where the fear of government is not a part of life.

10)  What was the last cultural event you went to? Have season tickets to the University of Utah theatre, so most likely their last play (42nd St.).  Next week, Broadway in New York.

11)  What are the three things you plan to fight for when elected? Smaller government, more freedom, lower taxes.

12)  Do you know what OMGWTFBBQ stands for? I can guess, but it makes little sense.

13)  What is the most important amendment in the Bill of Rights?  Several are very important. My law practice concentrates on First Amendment issues, so I have to pick that.

14)  What is your favorite band?The Playing for Change Band, which is an internet, “pick-up” band which gets together for periods of time, with changing membership.  They are there for a cause, and their music is very moving.

15)  If you could change one thing about your district, what would it be? A little more understanding for those who do not march to the beat of the same drummer.

***

To see other responses in the Meet the Candidates series, click here.

*Disclaimer – The opinions expressed in candidate responses are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Blue in Red Zion or its author. Every candidate with a working email address has received these same questions and are welcome to respond. If you are a candidate and did not receive these questions, please email curtis.haring@gmail.com in order to provide your own answers. The publication of a candidate’s questions should in no way be interpreted as an endorsement of said candidate.

Please note that readers are welcome to use the comment section to express their own opinion. As per the disclaimer on the right, comments will only be deleted if they can be widely viewed as offensive or not germane – though the final decision will be made by the administrator.

The news that is rippling through the Utah political scene today is the announcement by President Obama that he has tapped Governor Huntsman to be the U.S.’s ambassador to China. The ramifications of this still remain to be seen but, needless to say, they are many – both nationally and state-wide.

Let us begin with the national perspective. One of the most prevalent rumors surrounding the outgoing Governor was that he intended to run for president in 2012; all the while thinking that he did not have a shot in hell at actually getting the position.  I suspect that President Obama has heard these same rumors but feels that Huntsman is a greater threat.  What better way to block a challenge than to send your potential adversary to the other side of the world?

Now, please don’t get me wrong, I feel that Huntsman is a fantastic choice for ambassador.  His experience serving a mission in Taiwan makes him intimately aware of the tensions involved between those to nations.  Furthermore, I feel that if you come across as diplomatic in the eyes of Democrats and Republicans in Utah, you have to have some skills at keeping the peace. Furthermore, as ambassador to Singapore under Bush Sr. he knows what it takes to get the job done.

But, on that note, lets focus on Utah.

First off, I know that the next election for Governor will be the newly created special election in 2010, however I doubt that a reasonable campaign will be put together by a challenger to unseat Herbert, either from a Republican or Democratic candidate.

Lets focus on the most obvious jumping off point: what happens once Herbert takes office. Governor Herbert’s first official act will be to appoint a new Lieutenant Governor.  Herbert, being far more right that Huntsman and knowing that he can get more done if he tows the party line, will most likely pick another far right conservative.  Now, hailing from American Fork, Herbert can either choose a candidate also from Utah County and risk upsetting Salt Lake and Weber Republicans, or he can choose a candidate from Salt Lake  in an attempt to tow the party line and attempt to make the county Red again and secure a power base for at least the next five years. Obviously I feel that the latter is the route he will go.

Now who is out of work, is far right, has aspirations for higher office, and comes from Salt Lake County? Now I fully admit that I hope I am wrong on this one, but the three names I come up with are former Speaker of the House Greg Curtis, former state Representative and federal office seeker LaVar Christensen, and former Salt Lake County Mayor Nancy Workman.

We now have our Herbert/(insert name here) ticket for 2012; depending on the job he does, Herbert may be challenged internally.  As it stands right now, Huntsman was a formidable opponent, pulling 80 percent of the vote in the 08′ election – I doubt that Herbert could pull those same numbers, and this weakness opens him up to a challenge.  Watch and see if Attorney General Mark Shurtleff accidentally tweets his intention to stop running for U.S. Senate and picks up the gauntlet for Governor.

On the other side, who are the Democrats going to run? The person needs to be a moderate, have statewide name recognition, be plausible, and either is out of work or would be by 2012.  The one name that I keep turning to is Representitive Jim Matheson.  Matheson has, time and time again, proven to be a moderate Democrat on many issues (sometimes upsetting his liberal base), furthermore Jim is well-known across the state for both the work he and his father, former Governor Scott Matheson, have done for the state.  Being a Federal Representative, Matheson as Governor is not a hard sell to make and would be considered a political “step up.”  Now on to my final point, they must be out of work or would be by 2012.

The census is coming up in 2010 with the 2012 election to be the first affected by the inevitable boundary changes taking place.  It is also no secrete that Utah will get a fourth congressional seat. No matter how you cut it, Utah will have one Democratic seat at a minimum (most likely consisting of parts of Salt Lake and Summit County), and this seat will be very liberal. Matheson will, most likely, be cut out of his district and his tactic of being a moderate Democrat will come back to haunt him.  He will be too conservative for the new fourth seat and too liberal for the rest of the state. Result: Matheson probably can’t win in 2012.

What better way to avoid the embarrassment of loosing a seat that you have held for 12 years than to run for Governor? His moderate voice would be a good contrast to Herbert’s probable far-right rhetoric and fill the moderate “hole” that Huntsman creates when he leaves office. To win over more voters, Matheson would need to pick a Democrat that is also well known.  I predict that this means either Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corron, former federal Senate candidate Pete Ashdown, or Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker are put on a short list.

In short, I am saying it now, we will have a Herbert/(insert name here) Matheson/(insert name here) ticket. in 2012.

Next post – how Utah will change with Herbert as Governor.

This is the fourth in a five part series: Monday focused on Salt Lake County Elections, Wednesday concerned itself with the Utah State House of Representatives while Friday was the Utah Senate. Next Tuesday will focus on federal campaigns, and I have decided to talk about a little race going on in California as well.

Here, my fellow readers, is the post where I lose the most friends if only because I speak the truth!

State Treasurer

Prediction – Richard Ellis 59-41%
Endorsement – Dick Clark

This race is notable if only because of the Mark Walker scandal that rocked the Utah State Legislature earlier this year. Ellis will no doubt, slide into victory with no problem as he has an “R” next to his name; this is not to say that Ellis is not qualified, only that people tend not to pay much attention to these sorts of races. If history proves correct, this one will fall along party lines.

Dick Clark (D) – (unknown web site)
Richard Ellis (R) – www.ellisfortreasurer.com

State Auditor

Prediction – Austin Johnson III 59-35-3-3
Endorsement – Clare Collard

Again, I predict that the Republican will win hands down in this race. It is not due to a lack of effort on Collard’s part, however. She has put in as much effort as 2004’s candidate, Carlos Vasquez, in trying to gain the position. Most people, again, simply do not take the time necessary to learn about the candidate, and people will simply vote along party lines.

Clare Collard (D) –www.voteclarecollard.com
Austin Johnson III (R) – (unknown web site)
Richard Proctor (C) – http://proctorforauditor.blogspot.com
Mike Stoddard (L) – (unknown web site)

Attorney General

Prediction – Mark Shurtleff 67-29-4%
Endorsement – None

Now, as many of you know, I was let go from this campaign after a change in campaign managers earlier this year; that being said I will still attempt to offer an unbiased opinion with personal insight. Shurtleff will win for two reasons, one: he has done a good job of batting down any attacks Democrat Jean Welch Hill has put up, and two, the Hill campaign has struggled to get their message out and had too many changes in direction making it difficult to campaign.

Jean Welch Hill (D) – www.jeanwelchhill.org
Mark Shurtleff (R) – www.shurtleff2008.com
W. Andrew McCullough (L) – www.andrewmccullough.org

Governor

Prediction – Jon Huntsman/Gary Herbert 71-23-6
Endorsement – Bob Springmeyer/Josie Valdez

In the biggest blowout in the state, Jon Huntsman will trounce Springmeyer. This should come as no surprise as Huntsman is an extremely popular governor who seems to do no wrong (despite voting for vouchers, the omnibus bill, ReAL, etc.). To exacerbate the problem, the Springmeyer campaign has had a difficult time maintaining staff, thus making it more difficult to go out and properly campaign. It should also be noted that good ol’ “Superdell” Schanze will be on this ticket and, I predict, be the best performing third party candidate in the state, if only because of the novelty of it all.

Bob Springmeyer/Josie Valdez (D) – www.bobforgov.org
Jon Huntsman/Gary Herbert (R) – www.huntsman08.com
Dell Schanze/Joey Hobbs (L) – http://totallyawesome.com

So one of the worst kept secrets in the governors race is that “Super” Dell Schanze is bat $#!+ crazy; that being said, there is no excuse for his “campaign tactic” of labeling Governor Huntsman as an “anti-Christ socialist” and remarking that the Democratic Candidate, Bob Springmeyer does not “care about the Constitution” in a recent auto-dial phone call going out to potential voters.

Schanze campaign looks about as professional as his website.